Review Status: Ready for review
Working document: Launch Costs Model 5.1
- Case 1, No lunar base
February 10, 1998
Purpose: To estimate costs for launch services
to place 300 Gwe of Space Solar
Power baseload capacity
into Geo-Stationary Orbit over a span of 12
years
Note: The authors reviewed model input variables are placed in
cells with bold underline.
Specific Mass: Pending expected revision
from the SSP design team, (group 1 & 2) it will be
assumed that the specific mass of the SSP
is: 10 tons per Mwe, (for a total satellite
placement of
3.00E+06 metric tons, or 6.62E+09 pounds - (Note: About 2 Mw must be
collected in GSO orbit to
feed 1 Mw into a contracting electric power utility, since an end to
end wireless power conversion efficiency of 54
% is currently expected, and some slight excess capacity
is planned both for PV efficiency decay due to radiaction and SSP operation)
As there will be other goods placed into low orbit to support this activity,
a wrap-around factor termed Orbit Burden Factor, or OBF will be used to
account for the upper stage equipment and propellants, personnel and equipment,
and infrastructure. Pending updated analytical data, we set OBF
= 1.30 , based on the work done at
NASA 20 years ago.
Total Mass to LEO: Thus, the total mass
to be delivered from Earth to LEO is: 3.90E+06
metric tons. (OBF times 3.00E+06)
The Space Launch Vehicle: Numerous
candidate vehicles may be considered sufficiently credible
to perform this function. For simplicity, this cost case
assumes that the 5*StarBooster (module 5.1)
defined by Hu Davis will be used for the entire mission model.
(See supporting data)
It will be updated and/or extrapolated for other launch vehicles.
Gross Liftoff Mass
= 3,167 tons
Booster Propellants: Oxygen/Kerosene
Number of Stages =
2
Propellant Mass: 1,594
metric tons
Booster dry mass
= 209
tons
O/F Ratio:
2.6
Orbiter dry mass
= 123
tons
Orbiter propellants: Oxygen/Hydrogen
Net Payload =
87.4 tons
Propellant Mass: 1,077
to an orbit of: 500 km, incl.
= 0
O/F Ratio:
6.0
Flyback Jet Fuel =
54 tons *Propellant costs @ 1995
USAF costs
Total kerosene required = 497
tons @ $ 397
per ton = $ 1.97E+05 12%
Total hydrogen required = 154
tons @ $ 7,210 per ton =
$ 1.11E+06 68%
Total oxygen required = 2,074
tons @ $ 99
per ton = $ 2.06E+05 13%
Plus He pressurant and GN2 purge gas @
8%
1.21E+05 7%
Propellant costs per flight
= 1.63E+06 dollars plus waste
$18,689 per ton or $8.48 per lbm
payload
Nominal Fleet Size:
Determined by required maximum
launch rate, vehicle turn-around time, mission time,
load factor, and availability (average in-commission rate at the launch
site).
Average payload deliveries
to LEO = 3.25E+05 tons per year, but peak placement rate
is
133% this, or 433,333
tons per year. If the vehicle load factor is 85%
then the peak launch rate
is 5,833 flights per
year. If availability = 85%
then the fleet capability
must be 6,862 flights per year.
If launch operations are
conducted on 305 days per year,
daily flight rate is
22.50 or, rounding
up, 23 flights per day
SSP Placement Rate =
34324.94279 (units?)
The Booster vehicles should
be able to support 2
launches per day, while the
Orbiters will require
36 hours per mission, including turn-around & on-orbit time.
Thus,
12 Boosters and
35 Orbiters will be required in the
fleet.
Vehicle Depot Overhaul & Replacement:
Assume Orbiter Flights
per overhaul = 50
and Booster flights = 100
And Orbiter Life =
20 overhaul cycles and Booster
50 cycles.
Thus Orbiter life
= 1,000
missions and the Booster life is 5,000
flights.
Meaning that
6 new Orbiters and 1 Boosters/yr. must enter fleet each year
to replace wearout,
and 117 Orbiter + 58 Booster overhauls must
take place each
year. If the overhauls require spending 1.5 months at the depot,
15 Orbiters and
8 Boosters are in the depot at any given time.
43% of active fleet
70% of active fleet
Furthermore, flight
losses must be expected. If booster loss rate is one per
5000
flights and the orbiter
loss rate is one per 2500 flights,
then 2 Orbiters
and 1 Boosters
are lost each year.
Total Fleet Size & Total Annual Replacements:
Total Boosters in the fleet (and at the Depot) =
20 vehicles maintained
Total Orbiters in the fleet (and at the Depot) =
50 vehicles maintained
Total Booster Replacement Vehicles per year =
2 vehicles bought/year
Total Orbiter Replacement Vehicles per year =
8 vehicles bought/year
Total Fleet Buy: 12 year scenario - - 2008 - 2020,
300 Gwe rectenna output
Boosters: 48 vehicles purchased
Orbiters: 148 vehicles purchased
RDT&E & Theoretical First Unit Cost by Year:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| RDT&E, Booster, $M |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$8,500
|
| RDT&E, Orbiter, $M |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$12,600
|
| TFU, Booster |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$1,300
|
| TFU, Orbiter |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$1,750
|
| GSE @ 10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$2,415
|
| Facilities (see below) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
$4,000
|
Facilities Cost Estimates
Runways 2 @ 300 ft. x 15000 ft x 5 ft thick
1.67E+06 cu. yds. reinforced
concrete @ $100 yd.
=
$167 millions
100% for taxiways, ramps,
civil engineering improvements, lighting, etc. $167 millions
Hangars
W L
H $/ft2
3 Booster hangars
@ 300
600 100 300
$162 millions
8 Orbiter hangars
@ 400
600 100 300
$576 millions
2 Mating Facilities
@ 500
200 200 500
$100 millions
2 PL Integration bldg
@ 200
300 200 500
$60 millions
2 Control towers
@ $10
M each
$20 millions
20 Misc. minor buildings
$100,000 each
$2 millions
1.0E+05 ft. Security fencing
& gates @ $20.00 per ft. =
$2 millions
Industrial Facilities
W L
H $/ft2
2 Warehouses
@ 300
600 40 150
$54 millions
3 Engine Shops
@ 200
400 40 250
$60 millions
1 Metal Shop
@ 200
300 30 250
$15 millions
2 LH2 ET Storage @
200 300 30
150
$18 millions
20 Misc. minor buildings $100,000 each
$2 millions
Administrative & Technical W L H $/ft2
2 Office Buildings @
200 200 100
200
$160 millions
1 Mission Control @
200 200 30
500
$60 millions
20 Misc. minor buildings $100,000
each
$2 millions
Logistics & Support
W L
H $/ft2
7,667 Housing Units @
20 30
10 150
$690 millions
2 Hospitals
@ 200
300 50
500
$300 millions
4 Mess Facilities @
200 300
10 150
$36 millions
20 Misc. minor buildings $100,000 each
$2 millions
25 miles of road @
$1 M/mile
$25 millions
4000 acres of land @ 2500 acre
$10 millions
Depot (by existing airfield)
W L
H $/ft2
3 Booster hangars @
300 600
100 300
$167 millions
4 Orbiter hangars @
400 600
100 300
$322 millions
2 Warehouses
@ 300
600 40 150
$54 millions
3 Engine Shops
@ 200
400 40 250
$60 millions
1 Metal Shop
@ 200
300 30 250
$15 millions
Subtotal Facilities $3,307 millions
Reserve for oversights 20% $661 millions
Grand Total Facilities Costs: $3,969 millions say $4B
Investment $8.38
ETO Operations Costs
Personnel $2.46
Parts & Supplies $6.79
Propellants $10.59
Insurance $22.59
Operator Profit $7.62
?
$58.44
Personnel:
Assume crews are on duty for 4 shifts/day,
6 days per week with
25 direct people per shift per aircraft at the operating site =
100 persons/aircraft
6,900 direct people working at the operating site to maintain and
turn-around the fleet. "
Assume 2 X that number of persons per aircraft
per shift are employed at the depot,
4,600 direct people working at the depot
Assume crews are on duty for 100% overhead &
G&A = 11,500 indirect people employed at operating site + depot.
for a total staff of 23,000 persons with an average st
cost per man yr of $100,000
Overtime @ 150% straight rates yields 27,600 MYE
incl. overtime
Payroll Costs are therefore: 2760000000
dollars per year, or $110 per Kwe delivered
Or, per launch = $473,170 or $5,414 per ton =
$2.46 /pound of payload
Parts & Supplies:
Assume each Booster Flight consumes
0.10% of average unit cost per flight in parts & supplies
Assume each Orbiter Flight consumes 0.20%
of average unit cost per flight in parts & supplies
Booster per Flight Parts & supplies cost
$0.43 millions = $2.25 /pound of payload
Orbiter per Flight Parts & Supplies cost
$0.88 millions = $4.54 /pound of payload
for a total Parts
& supplies cost of
$1.31 millions = $6.79 /pound of
payload
Subtotal Direct Launch Costs:
per SSP per tonne Total Program
per pound
Investment (total)
$8.38
Personnel
$2.46
Parts & Supplies
$6.79
Propellants, losses = 25%
$10.59
Subtotal ETO Direct Costs
$28.22
Insurance @ % TFU 0.50%
$22.59
Operator Profit @ 15%
$ 7.62
Total ETO costs:
$58.44 per lbm.
Sensitivity Study - - Launch Costs to persons
per aircraft
Persons/shift/aircraft = 25 100 persons per aircraft,
direct
Total number of people employed = 2.30E+04
people
Costs for personnel= $2.46 per lbm = 5.41E+03
per tonne = $ 110 per kWe
Total cost of launch services =
$58.44 per lbm = $128,852 per tonne
= $ 1,675 per kWe
| Persons/ | Launch | Launch, | total | Persons/ | Launch, | |
| Shift/ac | Costs | $/kWe | personnel | Shift/ac |
$/kWe
|
|
|
10
|
|
$1,627
|
9,200
|
|
10
|
$1,627
|
|
20
|
|
$1,659
|
18,400
|
|
20
|
$1,659
|
|
40
|
|
$1,724
|
36,800
|
|
40
|
$1,724
|
|
80
|
|
$1,853
|
73,600
|
|
80
|
$1,853
|
|
160
|
|
$2,112
|
147,200
|
|
160
|
$2,112
|
|
320
|
|
$2,630
|
294.400
|
|
320
|
$2,630
|
|
640
|
|
$3,666
|
588,800
|
640
|
$3,666
|
|
|
1280
|
|
$5,738
|
1,180,000
|
1280
|
$5,738
|
|
|
Ref.
|
|
$1,675
|
2,300,000
|